Operatività derivati 30 ottobre 2006 |
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Zigarum
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1996
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Zigarum
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| Inviato il : 28/10/2006 - 20:24:30 |
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credo che perlomeno la mm verde velo 400 la rompa e ci scenda una 20 ina di punti minimo
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Zigarum
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| Inviato il : 28/10/2006 - 20:28:29 |
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GG
è chiaro che x ridiventar positivo avrebbe dovuto rompere il max del precedente GG
x cui se è come penso rompera il min di partenza a 6260
quello potrebbe essere un punto di entrata
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Zigarum
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SOLOMARE
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 28/10/2006 - 23:45:15 |
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mcclellan
vediamo quando si decidano a bucare ..ma siamo sulla strada buona..ocio con i long ... se non volete shortare aspettate almeno livelli importanti...o meglio state fermi..io al momento opero così: sbagliando SOLO short ..entro SOLO sulle forti resistenze e vado short perdendomi la salita..ma siccome ci sono passato altre volte a volere cercare il rimbalzo di qualche punto..e mi sono preso dei -3% in faccia ...mi viene + facile meno rischioso shortare 
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 28/10/2006 - 23:48:23 |
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qui ci siamo vediamo se stavolta vanno davvero oppure riescano a psare ancora sopra lo zero
cmq lìoscillatore ha anticipato ..ora mnca che giri le corna..quello sotto e il terzo che ha già incriciato al ribasso
poi domani se ho tempo metto il vix e il ratio
notte a tutti
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leon3037
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| Inviato il : 28/10/2006 - 23:57:47 |
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:33:21 |
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weekend update
REVIEW: was a fun week!
On wednesday the SPX hit our 1383 target, projected way back in mid August. The long term EW pivot points continue to anticipate this index perfectly. The previous target was SPX 1316, projected in February, and was hit in April. And, there are a series of others going back to the beginning of 2005. As for the markets overall. The FED met on wednesday and left short term rates unchanged. Third quarter GDP was reported weaker than expected at +1.6%. The major indices all made new uptrend highs, and the DOW/SPX/NAZ all made new bull market highs. The DOW, of course, is in all time record territory. The net change for the week was not as impressive: SPX/DOW +0.75% and the NDX/NAZ +0.40%.
LONG TERM: bullish
The bull market continues to unfold as anticipated. Primary waves I thru IV completed in Aug 2004. Ever since then, the major indices have been in an extending/subdividing Primary wave V. Primary wave V is subdividing into five Major waves: Major waves 1 - 2 completed in April 2005, Major wave 3 is underway. Major wave 3 is subdividing into five Intermediate waves: Intermediate waves i - ii completed in July 2006, Intermediate wave iii is currently underway. Intermediate wave iii should be subdividing into five Minor waves: Minor wave 1 is currently underway. For the OEW wave count see the weekly charts for the SPX/DOW/NDX/NAZ, by clicking the CHART LINK on the right side of the webpage. The strength of this uptrend confirms that the four year cycle low did indeed bottom in July, as expected. The SPX has rallied 170 points from the actual price low of this wave. This SPX uptrend is the strongest in three years, and is typical exiting a four year cycle low. The last cycle low occurred in Oct 2002, when the SPX rallied 185 points off the bottom. As the bull market continues, more and more advisors/investors will naturally turn bullish. This is what feeds the uptrends, the fear of missing the gains in stocks. It is really fear that drives the markets: fear of losing money during downtrends, and fear of missing out on the gains during uptrends. Greed enters when one has reaped great profits, and refuses to use common sense and cash out. In bull markets, it is best to buy during the oversold conditions of a downtrend, and sell during the overbought conditions of an uptrend. I always do my best to inform you when each condition is occurring. Obviously, this uptrend is overbought, and beginning to show additional signs of weakness. Personally, I closed my SPX position, which I held for about a 125 point gain, when the SPX hit the targeted 1383.
MEDIUM TERM: bullish ... most major indices uptrending
The price low for the SPX occurred in mid-June at 1219. The actual OEW low occurred a few weeks later in mid-July, when all the majors bottomed together, at 1225. After a nice five wave rally into early September, the market pulled back for a few days. This rally and pullback marked waves i and ii of this five wave uptrend. The current rally, from the early September wave ii low, was more complex and continuously subdivided as it extended higher and higher. While the NDX/NAZ had a much clearer wave pattern, the SPX/DOW was a bit tricky. It appears to me after reviewing all the charts this weekend. That the four majors are again aligned in the same wave pattern, and that wave iii, the third wave of the uptrend, should be completed. I have labeled the weekly, daily and hourly charts accordingly. It does appear that the prudent thing to expect at this point is a wave iv pullback. The uptrend should not be over. Just a pullback here and then another push to marginal new highs is likely. I would be greatly surprised if the SPX exceeded 1400 during this uptrend. A top in the 1390's is what I had been expecting all along. As many of the long term EW pivot points are always exceeded by a few points: see SPX weekly chart. The uptrend remains in force.
SHORT TERM: expecting some weakness in a fourth wave pullback.
As mentioned earlier, the NDX/NAZ have been unfolding in a very nice bullish OEW pattern. The SPX/DOW, however, have been pushing things to the limit, at nearly every opportunity now for two weeks. Now that I am starting to see some negative RSI divergences in the daily and hourly charts, a pullback here has a high probability. I mentioned last week, that we should start seeing some choppiness, as some of the smaller waves needed to complete; and waves iii, wave iv and wave v also need completion to end this uptrend. It does appear that this is underway. There are many short term support EW pivot points, most of which are noted on the hourly charts. During the week I'll keep you up to date on what is transpiring.
FOREIGN MARKETS: mixed.
ASIA: The ASX and the NIK look to be completing some short term waves within their uptrends. The SEC/BSE, however, both seem to be forming medium term tops. For the BSE, it may be a long term top. Caution is suggested.
EUROPE: The DAX appears to be topping medium term. The FTSE, which has been unfolding in a different pattern than the DAX, should continue to do so, as the commodity markets start to awaken again.
COMMODITIES: rates rising, and prices too
BONDS: Prices have come off their highs as Bond yields are now uptrending. Expecting new highs in yields soon.
CRUDE: Appears to have formed a diagonal triangle 5th wave, and should now start trending higher.
GOLD: Appears to have ended its correction in a 'failed flat' pattern, and should also start trending higher.
DOLLAR: The correction continues with additional short term weakness. Still bullish long term, but waiting for the bottom.
Many markets appear to be at a turning point as we enter the end of the year. Some stocks are displaying tops, and others have topped as the uptrend begins to weaken. Rates are rising, Crude and Gold are bottoming. The SPX commercials have been selling to the speculators in recent weeks. When the specs begin to sell, the stock market uptrend will likely end. Caution is advisable. Best to your week!
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:39:38 |
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è questi sono i suoi grafici 
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:40:58 |
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weekly
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:42:24 |
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ndx daily
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:43:59 |
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weekly
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:45:51 |
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dax
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:47:14 |
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weekly
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SOLOMARE
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| Inviato il : 29/10/2006 - 08:49:02 |
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ftse
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